Al Qaeda

Quantity ultimately translates into quality. It enables organizers to identify and exploit specialized talent that would be scarce or not available in a smaller enterprise. This is key to al Qaeda's operational capabilities. Amply funded, protected in Afghanistan, supported by Pakistan, motivated by a powerful vision, al Qaeda became the banner carrier of Islam's response to past defeats, frustration, humiliation, resentment, and fear. Al Qaeda's spectacular terrorist blows against the United States in Africa and the Middle East and America's feeble response, despite its vigorous denunciations, made Osama bin Laden a heroic leader. Everything seemed to confirm al Qaeda's calculations.

Al Qaeda is more than just an organization; it is also a process, and its principal resource is its human capital. Al Qaeda's future ability to grow and continue operations depends most strongly on its ability to gather new recruits.

On the basis of what we know about the September 11 attackers and the limited testimony of captured al Qaeda operatives, al Qaeda appears to function like many cults. Frustrated immigrants in Europe and America, drifters living on the margins of society, seekers of absolute truth or greater meaning in their lives, lonely souls with varying levels of education show up - on their own or invited by friends - at mosques and prayer groups, a few of which offer radical interpretations of faith. Fiery sermons identify common enemies, the obstacles to political and personal achievement. Recruiters watch for resonance and select promising acolytes for more intense indoctrination and training.

Most of the proposals for terrorist operations appear to come from the operatives in the field, rather than from the center. Approval from above, however, brings resources that elevate such plans to a deadlier realm. The provision of technical advice, money, documents, and additional manpower to the self-selected warriors suggests the existence of an underground bureaucracy - al Qaeda has middle management. Some operations seem to receive little central support, but a plan for an attack on the scale of September 11 would certainly have significant central control and could well have been initiated by al Qaeda's command.

An attack that carries the al Qaeda brand, duly credited in the news media to Osama bin Laden, thus enhances his reputation. Each attack becomes a recruiting poster, demonstrating the power of al Qaeda's interpretation of Islam, attracting more recruits.

Other governments in the Middle East and beyond have rounded up al Qaeda suspects and have committed themselves to cooperation in combating terrorism, although they still cannot agree on a definition of what terrorism is. Whatever appreciation Palestinians might have owed Osama bin Laden for opportunistically including their cause on his broader agenda has been offset by the vicissitudes of their own struggle. Its operatives forced deeper underground and its financial supporters forced to be more circumspect, al Qaeda's balance sheet does not look so favorable. However, we have not seen the last of al Qaeda.

Terrorist groups seldom quit, and al Qaeda did not retire on September 12. Growing evidence acquired since September 11 suggests that in addition to taking steps to protect its finances, instructing some of its key operatives to disappear, and making preparations to protect its leadership, Al Qaeda has vowed to carry out further attacks. And indeed, terrorist attacks have occurred in Pakistan, Tunisia, and Saudi Arabia, and other terrorist plots have been discovered before they could be carried out. Some of the plots originated prior to September 11, but others were set in motion afterwards. Not all of the plots are directly linked to al Qaeda, although some clearly are. Some of the attacks may have simply been provoked by America's war on terrorism and Pakistan's decision to support it, as well as by other events in the Middle East.

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